buildable value
The ZIP map
Oklahoma City's price geography runs north–south: affluent Edmond and the Nichols Hills corridor at the top, the historic south and near-east side at entry-level. Toggle a layer, or use the advisor to shortlist ZIPs that fit a strategy across several factors at once.
Choose up to five criteria. The top twelve light up on the map.
Investment advisor · how it works
How the match is scored
For each indicator you select, every OKC ZIP is percentile-ranked against the others in that indicator's favorable direction (0 = worst in metro, 100 = best). Your match score is the average of those ranks — a 100 would top OKC on every factor you chose.
- Higher is better — median income, rental yield, price change, market size.
- Lower is better — for-sale supply, home price (affordable entry). These are inverted before ranking, so "low" scores high.
Only ZIPs with data for every selected indicator are ranked. The top 12 light gold — brightest for the top 3 — each with a click-through breakdown.
Reading it honestly
Ranks are relative — percentiles within OKC, not absolute thresholds. A high match in a small metro is still only best-of-OKC. Competing goals (high income and high yield pull apart) yield balanced compromises, not winners on any one axis.
Yields are gross (rent ÷ price, before tax, insurance and vacancy — and Oklahoma carries high property-tax and hail/tornado insurance costs, so gross overstates net more here than on the coast). ZIP-level ACS carries sampling error. Every caveat is in the Sources section.
OKC-specific layers · TIF + Public investment
Toggle Development incentive · TIF for OKC's 32 tax-increment-financing districts — gold dashed outlines marking where the city recycles property-tax growth into public infrastructure. Source: OKC Open Data (ArcGIS).
Toggle Public investment · MAPS 4 + GO Bond for 22 location-specific capital projects. Purple dots are MAPS 4 ($1.07B penny sales tax, 2020–2028): the multipurpose stadium, Thunder arena, Innovation Hall, Clara Luper Center, 105 parks, beautification corridors and more. Orange dots are 2025 GO Bond ($2.7B, voter-approved Oct 2025): Priority Project Areas for streets, sidewalks, drainage and a new library. Click any marker for budget, status, target date and description. Sources: okc.gov/maps4, vision.okc.gov, News 9, KFOR, OKC Free Press — all curated from official announcements as of mid-2026.
Toggle Livability trend · 2020→2024 for a composite socioeconomic-improvement score (0–100). Modeled on the Healthy Places Index's domain structure, built entirely from public Census ACS data, measured as the change between ACS 2020 5-year and ACS 2024 5-year estimates. Four equal-weighted domains: Economic (½ × rank of income growth + ½ × rank of poverty reduction), Education (rank of Δ BA+ share), Housing (rank of Δ home-ownership rate), Transportation (rank of Δ transit+walk commute share). Each is percentile-ranked versus every other OKC metro ZIP, then averaged. 50 = typical metro pace. 70+ improving fast · 55–69 improving · 45–54 steady · 30–44 lagging · 0–29 declining. Coverage: 75 of 82 ZCTAs (7 excluded for suppressed data). A high score often signals gentrification pressure — rising income and education can accompany displacement. Read it beside affordability and planned-investment layers, not on its own.
Toggle Private development · planned for 13 forward-looking commercial and mixed-use projects — teal diamond markers. Each popup shows the category (Logistics, Retail, Office, Mixed-use, Residential, Hospitality, Industrial, Amenity), investment scale, status and description. Highlights: McKesson's $179M pharma hub in Moore, Rock Creek's $1.1B entertainment district in Norman, Echo's 51-acre Bricktown sports district, Scheels' 300k-sqft destination store in the Deer Creek corridor, and OKANA's $400M resort buildout. Sources: PR Newswire, Oklahoma Dept of Commerce, GreaterOKC, News 9, KFOR, OKC Free Press, Journal Record — all curated as of mid-2026.
Caveats, honestly: locations are approximate (project centroids, not site boundaries). Budgets are program estimates and shift — the stadium rose from $41M to $121M during planning. "Approved" and "design phase" are not construction; timelines slip. The GO Bond's 547 projects span the whole city — only the named Priority Project Areas are mapped here; the remaining 400+ street segments are too granular. Private projects are curated from press announcements; "planned" and "announced" projects can stall or change scope. The Median $/sqft and Sales layers use Redfin MLS data — off-market sales are underrepresented. School markers show OSTP 2025 composite proficiency (ELA + Math + Science), all grades — a single year's snapshot, not an official rank; small schools carry wide margins; 17 of 363 schools lack a matched score. Still staged: crime (OKC Police data is behind Accela/LexisNexis, not a clean open-data API), environment (EPA EJScreen's ArcGIS service and FTP are down following the Jan 2025 federal data reorganization; CEJST was removed entirely). Left out rather than faked.
Oklahoma City · Property Intelligence
OKC PROPERTY
Oklahoma City · valuation desk
Market command center
A steady, affordable metro that never bubbled. Where Los Angeles trades far above its affordability fundamental, Oklahoma City trades well below it — a median household can finance more than the median home. Every number below traces to a public source.
FHFA HPI · OKC
223
Q1 2026 · 2005 = 100
Median home value
$246k
Zillow ZHVI, metro
30-yr fixed
6.5%
Freddie Mac PMMS
Payment / income
21%
median hh · vs 30% target
Price vs P*
−30%
below affordable fundamental
The long view · two decades on one chart
Growth of $100 in OKC housing, indexed to 2005
A dollar of OKC housing against US housing, the S&P 500 and the cost of living — banded by the US president, Oklahoma governor and Fed chair, with the rate cycle, jobs and GDP stacked beneath. Pick a year range to zoom — more events appear the wider you go — and hover any marker for detail.
Indexed growth · 2005 = 100
OKC has roughly doubled since 2005 with none of the coastal volatility — a shallow dip in the 2008–2012 bust, then a long steady rise that turned sharp post-2020. With unemployment near 3% and price sitting under what incomes can finance, OKC is cheap in absolute terms. But the model fitted on its own history is clear that this affordability is a cushion, not a spring: prices here drift with momentum and income rather than snapping back to any anchor — the opposite of the reversion pressure that defines Los Angeles.
Where to look next
error-correction model + investment simulator
Forecast & IRR
ECM fitted on OKC's HPI (1977–2025). Price is carried by momentum and income — reversion to P* is zero. Pick a ZIP to run a renovation scenario: the chart and exit value update live.
Projected · 24 mo
$0
Annualized
implied CAGR
P*
fundamental
Headroom
vs P*
PITI / income
median hh
What moves price next month
Scenario & parameters
λ = 0: no reversion term. OKC drifts with momentum and income, not back toward an anchor. That is the key difference from coastal markets.
long-range plan
The road to 2028 — and 2040
OKC's forward plan runs on two converging clocks: MAPS 4 ($1.07B penny sales tax, ending 2028) builds the civic bones — arena, stadium, parks, transit — while the 2025 GO Bond ($2.7B) resurfaces the streets, drains and sidewalks underneath. Then a new penny tax picks up for the Thunder arena ($900M+). Behind it all, planOKC's comprehensive plan steers growth toward 2040 — expecting ~300,000 new residents on top of 700,000.
MAPS 4
$1.07B
16 projects · penny tax to 2028
GO Bond 2025
$2.7B
547 projects · voter-approved Oct 2025
Thunder arena
$900M+
new penny tax after MAPS 4
Population · 2040
~1M
+300k from today · planOKC
Private pipeline
$3B+
Rock Creek + Echo + OKANA + more
The roadmap
Milestones, adopted and ahead
MAPS 4 approved. Voters pass a $978M penny sales tax (later revised to $1.07B) for 16 projects — transit, parks, housing, mental health, animal shelter, beautification corridors, a multipurpose stadium and an innovation district. The tax runs through 2028.
MAPS 4 design & planning phase. Implementation plan adopted Sep 2021. Individual projects enter architectural design, land acquisition and environmental review. 105 park projects begin scoping.
OG&E Coliseum opens. First fully completed MAPS 4 project — the rebuilt Fairgrounds Coliseum. Ribbon-cut June 2025. Signals the program is delivering, not just planning.
GO Bond approved. Voters pass $2.7B in general-obligation bonds — the largest in city history. 547 projects: 382 street projects (150+ miles of sidewalks), drainage, bridges, fire stations, transit operations center, a new library. No property-tax increase; bonds issued as older ones retire.
Thunder arena breaks ground. Flintco-Mortenson selected as CM-at-risk. 750,000 sqft on the former Myriad Convention Center site. MANICA Architecture. 360° glass curtain wall, Thunder Alley fan zone. Funded by a new 72-month penny tax (starts when MAPS 4 ends) + $70M MAPS 4 + $50M Thunder ownership. Peak employment: 1,000+ workers.
MAPS 4 stadium construction starts. $121M multipurpose stadium (10,000 seats, expandable to 18,000) south of Bricktown. Populous architect, Russell Westbrook as Creative Director. Anchors Echo Investment Capital's 51-acre sports and entertainment district. Opening target: Jan 2028.
MAPS 4 project delivery wave. Diversion Hub (spring 2026), Animal Welfare Center (Jan 2027), Palomar Family Justice Center (spring 2027). Innovation District connectivity improvements. Beautification corridors in design. 105 park projects in phased implementation.
Thunder arena opens · MAPS 4 tax ends. The new arena opens for the 2028–29 NBA season. The penny sales tax that funded MAPS 4 rolls into the arena's dedicated 72-month levy. Downtown's center of gravity shifts west from Bricktown to the new arena district.
MAPS 4 implementation continues. Program funds are collected through 2028, but project construction extends to ~2032. GO Bond infrastructure projects roll out in parallel — 150+ miles of sidewalks, street resurfacing, drainage, fire stations.
Rock Creek + Echo districts mature. Rock Creek's $1.1B entertainment district in Norman and Echo's 51-acre district south of Bricktown reach critical mass. Combined with OKANA's $400M resort, the metro's entertainment geography reshapes.
planOKC horizon. The comprehensive plan's seven themes — transportation, housing diversity, health, great places, neighborhoods, fiscal sustainability, rural character — steering growth toward a population approaching one million.
Public investment · funding inflows
Where public money is flowing
Public capital lifts nearby values before it lands. The map shows only planned and under-construction projects — the un-priced-in upside. These are mapped as markers on the Public investment and Private development layers; toggle them to see locations.
| Project | Funding | Budget | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| MAPS 4 — civic | |||
| Thunder ArenaFormer Myriad site · downtown | New penny tax + MAPS 4 + Thunder | $900M+ | Under construction · summer 2028 |
| Multipurpose StadiumSouth of Bricktown | MAPS 4 + GO Bond + TIF | $121M | Under construction · Jan 2028 |
| Innovation HallInnovation District | MAPS 4 | $76.7M | Design |
| Clara Luper Civil Rights CenterFreedom Center area | MAPS 4 | $17M | Design |
| Palomar Family Justice CenterMidtown | MAPS 4 | $42M | Under construction · spring 2027 |
| Animal Welfare CenterSE 29th St | MAPS 4 | $42M | Phase 1 construction · Jan 2027 |
| 105 Park ProjectsCitywide | MAPS 4 | $140M | Phased · through 2032 |
| Transit & BeautificationCorridors citywide | MAPS 4 | $96M | Design · phased |
| GO Bond 2025 — infrastructure | |||
| Streets & sidewalks382 projects · 150+ mi sidewalks | GO Bond | $1.35B | Starting ~2026 |
| Drainage & bridgesFlood-prone areas citywide | GO Bond | $430M | Starting ~2026 |
| Public safety facilities4 fire stations, police lab, courts | GO Bond | $340M | Planning |
| New library branchNW OKC Priority Project Area | GO Bond | Part of $2.7B | Planning |
| Transit operations centerBus fleet base | GO Bond | Part of $2.7B | Planning |
Sources: okc.gov/MAPS-4, vision.okc.gov, Flintco, News 9, KFOR, OKC Free Press, Oklahoma Gazette. Budgets are program estimates; timelines shift.
Planned private development
Where private capital is building
Private megaprojects signal where developers are betting — jobs, residents and street life not yet in surrounding prices. All below are planned or under construction. OKC's private pipeline is expanding under favorable fundamentals: abundant land, low regulatory friction, population growth and the MAPS 4/arena halo effect. Mapped as teal diamonds on the Private development layer.
| Project | Developer / Operator | Scale | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rock Creek Entertainment DistrictNorman · 73072 | Rainier Development + OU Foundation | $1.1B · 269 acres · arena, hotels, retail, residential | Broke ground May 2026 |
| Echo Entertainment DistrictSouth Bricktown · 73109 | Echo Investment Capital + Robinson Park | 51 acres · restaurants, retail, residences around MAPS 4 stadium | Planning |
| OKANA Resort · BoardwalkOklahoma River · 73129 | Chickasaw Nation Industries | $400M · 404-room hotel, waterparks, dining, spa | Phase 2 open summer 2026 |
| McKesson Pharma Distribution HubMoore · 73160 | McKesson Corp (Fortune 5) | $179M · 330k sqft DC · 633 jobs | Site work starting |
| Scheels Sporting GoodsDeer Creek · 73134 | Scheels | 300k sqft destination store · $8M city incentive | Approved · spring 2028 |
| Guernsey Mass-Timber HQAutomobile Alley · 73104 | Guernsey | 4-story mass-timber office, first of its kind in OKC | Under construction |
| Alley's End Affordable HousingMidtown · 73103 | Rose Rock Development | OKC's largest affordable housing complex | Under construction · mid-2026 |
| Elm Hotel · The HalfDowntown · 73102 | Dream Hotel Group | 140 rooms · rooftop bar · pool | Under construction · late 2026 |
| AAR Aircraft MRO ExpansionWill Rogers Airport · 73179 | AAR Corp | 200 new jobs · aircraft maintenance | Announced |
Sources: PR Newswire, Oklahoma Dept of Commerce, GreaterOKC, News 9, KFOR, OKC Free Press, Journal Record. Private projects can stall or change scope; "planned" ≠ building.
Why it matters for property
OKC is layering $4.7B+ in public capital (MAPS 4 + GO Bond + arena) on top of a metro that already has some of the most affordable housing in America (median ~$246k vs $900k+ in LA). The combination of civic infrastructure investment, population growth (~1.5%/yr) and deep affordability headroom creates a fundamentally different investment thesis than coastal markets.
The key corridors to watch: the downtown sports axis (Thunder arena → MAPS 4 stadium → Echo district), the NW Deer Creek frontier (Scheels + Crest + residential rooftops), and the south I-35 logistics belt (McKesson + Winsupply + AAR). Public and private capital are stacking in these same geographies — and that convergence is where the upside concentrates.
The honest risk
OKC's plan assumes continued population growth and energy-sector stability. Oklahoma's economy still correlates with oil: a sustained downturn compresses the tax base that funds MAPS and the GO Bond. The arena's dedicated penny tax needs consumer spending to hold. And unlike LA, OKC has no supply constraint — abundant buildable land means rising demand can be met with new supply rather than price gains, which caps appreciation potential even as livability improves.
The GO Bond's $2.7B is debt, not savings. While structured to avoid a tax increase (bonds replace retiring ones), a revenue shortfall or a recession could slow the rollout. MAPS 4 projects are already running past their original timelines — the program runs to 2032, not 2028.
legal & policy environment
What the law says about your investment
Oklahoma's regulatory and tax environment is materially different from coastal markets. These rules, active and pending, directly affect renovation IRR and hold-period strategy.
Investor-favorable
100% state capital gains deduction. Oklahoma allows taxpayers to exclude all capital gains from the sale of Oklahoma real property from state income tax — if the property was held for at least 5 uninterrupted years. At Oklahoma's top rate of 4.5%, this saves $4,500 per $100k of gain. This is one of the most generous real estate tax benefits in any US state. For the IRR model: a 5+ year hold eliminates the state tax layer entirely on exit. (Okla. Stat. §2358; Form 561)
Income tax cuts. HB 2764 (2025) reduced Oklahoma's top income tax rate from 4.75% to 4.5% effective 2026, and consolidated six brackets into three. Further cuts are signaled — Governor Stitt has stated the goal of eventually eliminating the state income tax. Lower income taxes support consumer spending and housing demand.
Low property taxes. Oklahoma's effective property tax rate is ~0.90% of assessed value (national average: 1.07%). Homestead-assessed properties are capped at 3%/yr growth in assessed value. No estate or inheritance tax. Combined with the capital gains deduction, the total investor tax burden is among the lowest in the US.
Opportunity Zones. OKC has 44 designated Opportunity Zones, concentrated in south/SE OKC, Capitol Hill, and parts of downtown. Investments in qualified OZ properties can defer and potentially eliminate federal capital gains tax on appreciation if held 10+ years. Several of the highest-reno-spread ZIPs (73108, 73109, 73129) overlap OZ tracts.
STR-friendly licensing. Oklahoma City requires a Home Sharing License ($24/yr) for short-term rentals. No statewide ban or cap on STRs. The total tax burden on Airbnb/VRBO bookings is ~13.9% (4.5% state sales + 4.1% local sales + 5.5% hotel tax), collected automatically by platforms. OKC is one of the more permissive major metros for STR investors.
Watch closely
Property tax cap ballot measure (Aug 2026). SJR 39 goes to voters on August 25, 2026. It would lower annual assessment growth caps from 5%→4% for non-homestead property and 3%→1.75% for homesteads, starting tax year 2027. It also creates a tiered senior freeze. For investors: lower caps on non-homestead property (your rental) slow tax growth — directly positive for operating cash flow. But reduced local revenue could slow infrastructure investment that supports appreciation.
STR tightening (Feb 2025 ordinance). The OKC Council adopted stricter short-term rental rules effective Feb 16, 2025: maximum 10 nights/month without a special exception permit, 16-person occupancy cap, 10% of homes per block cap on STR permits, parking requirements. The city is hiring a consultant to identify unlicensed operators. For investors relying on Airbnb income: the regulatory trend is toward more enforcement, not less.
SB 48 — possible sunset of capital gains deduction. A bill was introduced to limit the 100% capital gains deduction to tax years through 2025. While it has not passed, the deduction is politically contested (~$160M/yr in forgone state revenue, 66% of benefit going to incomes over $1M). A future repeal or cap would significantly change the after-tax IRR of a 5+ year hold.
Ad Valorem Reform Act (SB 1150). Proposed elimination of property taxes for homeowners 65+ who own their home outright, funded by shifting to consumption taxes. If adopted, this would reduce taxable property in the base — potentially shifting more burden to non-homestead (investor) properties, or constraining local government budgets.
Structural risks
No rent control, no rent stabilization. Oklahoma has no statewide rent control and state law preempts local rent control ordinances. This is favorable for rental income growth — but also means no political floor under tenant protections, which could change if affordability becomes a political issue in a growing metro.
Eminent domain exposure. The Oklahoma Turnpike Authority's $8.2B ACCESS Oklahoma program has drawn controversy over aggressive use of eminent domain for highway expansion. Properties near planned turnpike corridors (SE OKC, Norman-area) carry acquisition risk. Reform legislation failed in the 2026 session.
Oil-economy correlation. Oklahoma's tax base — sales tax funding MAPS, income tax funding services — ultimately rests on energy-sector employment and royalty income. A sustained oil downturn compresses state revenue, which could trigger budget cuts, slower infrastructure delivery, or tax increases that affect investor returns. The state's three bond rating upgrades since 2024 reflect current strength, but the underlying correlation hasn't been diversified away.
Sources: Oklahoma Legislature (SJR 39, SB 48, SB 1150, HB 2764), Oklahoma Tax Commission (Form 561), okc.gov (home sharing ordinance), Bond Buyer, AARP OK Tax Guide, Oklahoma Policy Institute. Legislation status as of mid-2026; verify before acting.
Sources & further reading
demand fundamentals
Can local pay keep up?
OKC’s affordability advantage is real — median household income covers the median home at a comfortable PITI-to-income ratio of ~21%, while the national average stretches past 30%. That gap is the market’s structural cushion, but the fitted ECM is clear that it is a level fact, not a forecast force.
Median household income · Oklahoma County
Residents · OKC metro
A growing base
OKC metro population (FRED · Census). The MSA has grown every year since 2000, from ~1.25M to ~1.51M — a +20% expansion that underpins steady demand. Unlike LA County, which peaked and drifted, OKC is still adding residents.
Oklahoma single-family permits
What the state is building
Oklahoma private single-family permits, annual (FRED · Census). OKC has no city-level permit open data, so the state total is the closest clean proxy. The post-2020 rebound reflects the price surge; the recent pullback tracks rate tightening.
A median OKC household earns about $68k; the median home sells for ~$246k with a PITI payment around $1,250/mo. That’s 21% of gross income — well under the 30% affordability threshold. The market’s fitted model treats this as a real cushion and a valuation reference, but not a spring that pulls prices upward: OKC drifts with momentum and income, not toward an affordability anchor.
rates & credit
The rate cycle, 2016–2026
The 30-year fixed is a national price — the same rate reprices affordability everywhere. What differs is how binding it is. Where a stretched coastal market whipsaws with every quarter-point, OKC trades roughly 30% below its affordability fundamental (P*), so the rate channel is present but weaker: our ECM found the short-run rate coefficient statistically indistinguishable from zero (β₂ = −0.005, t = −1.4). Consensus has the 30-year drifting sideways near 6% through 2028.
Pandemic trough
2.65%
Jan 2021
Cycle peak
7.8%
late 2023
Current
6.5%
mid-2026
2028 consensus
6.35%
Fannie · MBA · Freddie
Bank lending standards · outlook
Credit conditions into 2026
Banks' expected change in lending standards over 2026, by category (Fed SLOOS special questions, Jan 2026). Left = expect to ease, right = expect to tighten. National survey — no OKC cut.
Standards 2026
Steady
unchanged for most; GSE mortgages easing
Loan demand 2026
↑ Stronger
expected across all categories
Construction lending
↓ Tighter
the one exception
The OKC read
For conforming mortgages, banks are holding standards steady with a slight easing bias — a modest net share eased GSE-eligible standards recently, and they expect no broad tightening in 2026. Combined with demand they expect to strengthen, credit availability is a gentle tailwind for buyers everywhere, including OKC.
The construction-lending tightening bites less here than on the coasts: OKC has abundant permittable land and Oklahoma single-family permits have run 10–14k/yr for a decade, so a marginal credit squeeze on developers doesn't collapse the pipeline the way it can in a supply-starved market. The watch-item is credit quality — banks expect residential-mortgage delinquencies to rise in 2026 — a supply-side concern more than a demand-side one.
market intelligence
News by ZIP
Commercial, development and market news across Oklahoma City metro, sourced from reporting through mid-2026. Filter by ZIP to see what is happening in a specific area, or browse all.
Stories are sourced from OKC VeloCity, The Oklahoman, News9, Price Edwards, Hoodline, and city of OKC public reporting. The feed is a snapshot as of the build date — it is a starting point for due diligence, not a substitute for it. ZIP associations are approximate; a story may appear under multiple ZIPs when the project spans a corridor.
the formula & where the data lives
Method
The forecast engine mirrors the LA build; the calibration is Oklahoma City's own. Below is the model, what the OKC data changed, and an honest line between what is fitted on OKC history (the price dynamics) and what remains imposed (the population and supply elasticities, for want of quarterly OKC series).
Error-correction — where the market goes
+ β₂·Δrate rate shock (−)
+ β₃·pop + β₄·income demand (+)
− β₅·permits + β₆·tightness supply
− λ·(ln P₋₁ − ln P*·K) reversion to affordability
P* = L* / (1 − down), payment(L*) = target · income
Fitted on OKC's own history
The short-run dynamics are no longer borrowed. They are an Engle–Granger two-step error-correction model estimated on the OKC FHFA index, quarterly, 1977–2025 (n = 194) — the mortgage rate from Freddie Mac and, as the income fundamental, Oklahoma per-capita personal income (state-level; metro PCPI isn't published). Estimates below carry HAC (Newey–West) standard errors and have been independently re-run from the raw series. What the data says is more sobering than the earlier priors, and the model now reflects it.
| Term | Estimate | t (HAC) | What OKC's data says |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum β₁ | 0.37 | 3.1 | Strong and significant — last quarter's move carries. The borrowed 0.35 was essentially right. |
| Rate pass-through β₂ | −0.005 | −1.4 | Correct sign, marginal — and half the −0.010 prior. An affordable market bends less to rates. |
| Income γ (short-run) | 0.40 | 2.4 | Significant. A quarter's price growth tracks income growth close to one-for-one. |
| Reversion λ | ≈ 0.00 | −0.7 | No measurable error-correction. Price does not reliably pull back toward the affordability fundamental; λ is set to zero. |
| Long-run income elasticity | 0.69 | 17.6 | Over decades, prices move ~0.69% per 1% of income — a tight, but less-than-one, level relationship. |
| Cointegration (ADF on residual) | −1.88 | — | Fails the Engle–Granger test (5% ≈ −3.34). The price–income gap is not stationary — it can persist for a decade. |
Short-run R² = 0.19 · residual σ = 1.76%/qtr → 1.0%/√month (sets the forecast band). A cross-check fitting the affordability-P* fundamental directly gives K = 0.50 and the same verdict: λ statistically zero.
The headline finding
OKC house prices are driven by momentum and income, not by reversion to an affordability anchor. The estimated λ is statistically zero and the price–fundamental residual is only borderline stationary — the market can, and does, drift below what incomes finance for a decade at a time.
So the affordability gap (price ~30% under P*, payment 21% of income) is a real level fact and a valuation reference — but it is not a forecast force. The earlier build gave it a mild upward pull; the OKC data does not support that, and it has been removed (λ set to 0). The baseline forecast fell from ~5%/yr to ~3%/yr as a result — closer to what OKC has actually done since 2023.
What was fitted, and the honest edges
Fitted on OKC: momentum β₁, rate β₂, income γ, reversion λ, and volatility σ — plus the affordability anchors (price, income, rate, P*). K is the fitted historical mean of price/P* (≈ 0.50); with λ = 0 it is inert, and matters only if a user re-enables reversion by hand.
Frequency: only quarterly HPI exists for OKC, so the model is estimated quarterly and mapped to the monthly engine preserving baseline drift and volatility (β₁ applied per step; a true monthly fit would need monthly HPI, which isn't published).
Not separately identified: population and months-of-supply aren't in the regression (no quarterly OKC series), so income absorbs general demand and both sliders sit neutral by default — use them as scenario overlays, not additive fitted effects. No hedonic is shipped: OKC parcel-sale microdata isn't yet loaded.
County parcel records — a reality check (and why there’s no hedonic)
A hedonic model decomposes price into structure (\$/sq-ft, age, beds) plus land and location. OKC can’t support one from open data: the Oklahoma County Assessor’s public roll (337k parcels, fetched live) carries sale price, lot size, assessed value and location — but no structure characteristics (square footage, year built, beds/baths sit behind a paid product), and the sale field holds only each parcel’s most recent transfer, so just ~460 valid arm’s-length residential sales exist, all 2025–2026. The county runs its own mass-appraisal model internally and publishes only its output. So instead of fitting a thin, mis-specified hedonic, the records are used to validate the portal:
| Check | Result | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Recorded-sale median (460 valid 2025–26 sales) | ~\$240,000 | Within 2% of the portal’s \$246k benchmark — the Zillow figure holds against real deeds. |
| Sale ÷ assessor market value | 1.01 (IQR 0.92–1.13) | Assessments track the market almost exactly; the middle half of homes sell within ±10% of assessed value. |
| Lot-size premium (ln price ~ ln acres) | +0.07 (t = 4.4) | Beyond assessed value, a 10% larger lot adds ~0.7% — small and correctly signed. |
The assessor’s mean value now appears in each ZIP popup for the 18 ZIPs inside Oklahoma County. Full-metro coverage would need the Cleveland and Canadian County rolls (south and west OKC) — staged for a later pass.
Data sources
OKC metro HPI FRED
ATNHPIUS36420Q · FHFA purchase-only, quarterly to 1977 (no Case-Shiller exists for OKC)
30-yr mortgage FRED
MORTGAGE30US · the rate channel
Median income Census / FRED
ACS B19013 by ZIP · MHIOK40109A052NCEN (Oklahoma Co)
Home value / rent Zillow
ZHVI & ZORI by ZIP · benchmark price + gross yield
Practical read: P* marks where incomes could carry prices, and OKC sits well below it — but the fit is clear that this gap does not forecast a climb toward it. Prices here follow their own momentum and local income growth; the affordability room is a cushion and a level reference, not a predicted direction. Neither model is an appraisal.
provenance
Sources & data
Every figure traces to a public source, embedded as a dated snapshot. At runtime the portal makes no live API calls — it loads only map tiles, web fonts and the Chart.js / Leaflet libraries. Below is each source, what we take from it, and its limits.
| Source | Data used | Limitations & reservations |
|---|---|---|
| Prices & market | ||
| FRED — St. Louis Fed | FHFA purchase-only HPI for the OKC metro (36420), 30-yr fixed mortgage rate, Oklahoma County median income, OKC-metro unemployment, and Oklahoma private permits. | Public CSV, no key. Metro / county / state only — never ZIP. OKC has no Case-Shiller index; FHFA is the metro benchmark. Series lag 1–2 months; HPI is quarterly. |
| Fed SLOOS | Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, Jan 2026 special questions — banks' expected 2026 change in lending standards and loan demand, by category. The Credit conditions chart in Rates & credit. | Quarterly, national. No metro or state cut — the outlook applies to OKC only insofar as OKC banks respond to the same national credit cycle. Reflects net share of respondents, not absolute levels. |
| Fannie Mae · MBA · Freddie Mac | 30-year mortgage-rate projections through 2028; the consensus point and forecaster range in the rate chart. | These are forecasts, not data; each is revised monthly. Shown as a range rather than a point to make the disagreement legible. |
| Zillow Research | Home Value Index (ZHVI) by ZIP + YoY change; ZHVI monthly time series by ZIP (Jan snapshots 2014–2026, 77 ZIPs) for the Economy section trend chart; ZHVI bottom-tier (5th–35th pctile) and top-tier (65th–95th pctile) by ZIP for the Price spread map layer and Advisor factor; Observed Rent Index (ZORI) for gross yield; for-sale inventory by ZIP. | Attribution required; intended non-commercial. ZHVI is a smoothed index, not recorded sales. Tier spread conflates home size with condition/age — a large spread may reflect mansions vs cottages, not just old vs new. ZORI covers ~53 of 82 OKC ZIPs (thin rental markets drop out). Yield is gross (before costs/vacancy). Latest May 2026. |
| Market — Redfin | ||
| Redfin Data Center | Median sale price per square foot ($/sqft) by ZIP and homes sold (trailing 12 months, Jul 2025–Jun 2026) — the Median $/sqft and Sales · 12mo map layers. 75 ZIPs with PPSF data, 73 with sales counts. | Attribution required. Monthly ZIP-level data from the Redfin market tracker TSV. Reflects MLS-reported closed sales; off-market and new-construction-only sales may be underrepresented. Sales count sums monthly figures over 12 months — may double-count relisted properties. |
| Schools | ||
| NCES + Oklahoma Report Cards | Public school locations (NCES EDGE 2024–25, 363 schools) cross-matched with OSTP 2025 composite proficiency scores (% Proficient or better in ELA + Math + Science, all tested grades) from the Oklahoma School Report Cards CSV archive. 346 of 363 schools matched by name. | Points are school locations, not attendance boundaries. Virtual/online schools filtered out. Composite score averages across all tested grades at each school — small schools with few tested students carry wider margins. Proficiency = Advanced + Proficient (300+ OPI score). 17 schools unmatched (score shown as n/a). |
| Demographics — by ZIP | ||
| Census Reporter | ACS 2024 5-year by ZCTA: median household income and population for the 82 OKC-metro ZIPs. | Keyless; newest ACS release only (no history). 5-year pooled (2020–2024). ZCTA ≈ ZIP. ZIP-level sampling error is large — year-to-year change isn't reliable. |
| Livability trend — derived | ||
| data.census.gov — ACS API | ACS 2020 5-year (baseline) and ACS 2024 5-year (current): median income (B19013), poverty status (B17001), educational attainment BA+ (B15003), housing tenure (B25003), commute mode (B08301). The Livability Trend score is a four-domain, equal-weighted, percentile-ranked composite of the change between these two vintages across 75 OKC-metro ZCTAs. | The two ACS vintages overlap (2016–2020 vs 2020–2024) so they share two survey years — the measured change understates the true decade of movement. The housing domain (ownership rate) is noisy in areas with large apartment construction (ownership drops even when the area thrives). Transit + walk commute share fell across most of the US post-COVID. 7 ZCTAs are excluded due to Census suppression (small populations or institutional group quarters). |
| Age gap — Census B25107 | ||
| data.census.gov — ACS B25107 | Median value of owner-occupied housing by year structure built, ACS 2024 5-year, at ZCTA level. Ten construction eras from pre-1939 to 2020+. The Age gap map layer and Advisor factor show the dollar difference between the newest and oldest available era in each ZIP (69 ZIPs scored). | Self-reported home values, not recorded sales. 5-year pooled (2020–2024). Many eras are suppressed in small ZIPs (too few owner-occupied units of that vintage). The gap measures age premium only — it does not control for lot size, square footage, or location within the ZIP. A $2M top-code applies to the 2020+ era in some luxury ZIPs. |
| Reno $/sqft — Redfin individual sales | ||
| Redfin — sold records | 3,277 individual sale records (OKC metro, last 3 years) with price, sqft, year built, and ZIP. Median $/sqft computed for five construction eras (pre-1960, 1960–79, 1980–99, 2000–09, 2010+). The Reno $/sqft layer shows the size-controlled renovation premium: median $/sqft of 2010+ sales minus pre-1980 sales, per ZIP. 30 ZIPs with ≥2 sales in both old and new cohorts; 58 ZIPs with any era data. | Redfin CSV export, capped at 350 records per page. OKC city + Edmond + Norman + Moore + Yukon. Some peripheral ZIPs still missing. Minimum 2 sales per era/ZIP to compute a median; ZIPs with fewer are excluded. Does not distinguish renovated from un-renovated homes — all sales in the era are pooled. Prices are nominal (not inflation-adjusted). |
| Geography & base map | ||
| US Census TIGER (via OpenDataDE) | ZCTA (ZIP) boundary polygons, filtered to within 32 miles of downtown OKC and simplified to ~12% with mapshaper. | 2010 ZCTA vintage; simplified geometry — not survey-exact. The 32-mile cut is an editorial metro-core boundary. |
| OpenStreetMap | Interactive map base tiles. | OSM light tiles (CARTO is blocked in the render sandbox). |
| OKC Open Data (ArcGIS Hub) | The 32 tax-increment-financing (TIF) districts — name, established year, boundary — shown as the Development incentive map overlay. | Live ArcGIS FeatureServer, no key. Polygons simplified ~20% for size. OKC's open portal publishes no building-permit layer at ZIP or point level; permits sit behind the Accela portal (no API). |
| Oklahoma County Assessor | Public tax roll (337k parcels): recorded sale price/date, assessed market value, lot size. Used to validate the benchmark (recorded median ~\$240k) and the assessment-to-sale ratio (1.01), and to show assessor mean value in ZIP popups. | Live ArcGIS FeatureServer, no key. No structure characteristics (sq-ft, age) and sale field holds only recent (2025–26) transfers — so no full hedonic. Oklahoma County only; south/west metro is in Cleveland & Canadian counties. |
| Public investment — curated | ||
| MAPS 4 — City of OKC | 16 voter-approved projects ($1.07B penny sales tax, 2020–2028): stadium, Innovation Hall, Clara Luper Center, Fairgrounds Coliseum, transit, parks, beautification corridors, mental health & justice facilities. Locations, budgets and statuses from official project pages. | Curated from okc.gov and local press as of mid-2026. Budgets are program estimates and have changed (stadium rose $41M→$121M). Locations are project centroids, not site boundaries. Timelines shift; "design phase" ≠ construction. |
| 2025 GO Bond — City of OKC | $2.7B general obligation bond (voter-approved Oct 2025), 547 projects in 11 categories. The mapped subset covers Priority Project Areas (PPAs) for streets, sidewalks, drainage, and a new library. | Only the named PPAs are mapped — the remaining 400+ street segments are too granular for ZIP-level display. No property-tax increase; bonds issued as older ones retire. Construction expected to start ~1 year after approval. |
| Private development — curated | ||
| PR Newswire · Oklahoma Dept of Commerce · GreaterOKC · News 9 · KFOR · OKC Free Press · Journal Record | 13 forward-looking private/commercial projects: McKesson pharma hub (Moore), Winsupply DC expansion, Scheels megastore, Rock Creek Entertainment District (Norman), Echo entertainment district, Guernsey HQ, Alley's End housing, Elm Hotel, Berry Rock Building, Deer Creek retail corridor, AAR MRO expansion, OKANA Resort buildout, Lake Hefner clubhouse. | Curated from press announcements and official releases as of mid-2026. "Planned" and "announced" projects can stall, change scope, or be cancelled. Budgets are developer estimates. Locations are approximate centroids. Private pipeline is subject to financing, permitting, and market conditions. |
| Long-range plan — curated | ||
| planOKC | The city's comprehensive plan (adopted 2015, horizon ~2040). Seven themes: transportation, housing diversity, health, great places, neighborhoods, fiscal sustainability, rural character. Projects ~300,000 new residents on top of ~700,000 today. | A policy document, not a binding zoning map. Growth projections are aspirational, not guaranteed — actual pace depends on economic conditions and migration. |
| Flintco-Mortenson · News 9 · KFOR · Oklahoma Gazette · OKC Free Press | Thunder arena ($900M+, Flintco-Mortenson CM-at-risk, MANICA Architecture, summer 2028 opening), MAPS 4 stadium ($121M, Populous architect), GO Bond 2025 project breakdown, and timeline milestones for the Long-range plan section. | Curated from press reporting as of mid-2026. Arena and stadium budgets are estimates subject to change. Construction timelines are targets, not contractual guarantees. |
| Not yet in this build | ||
| OKC Police · OSBI · EPA EJScreen · OKC Urban Heat | Crime per capita and environmental burden layers — the OKC-specific equivalents of the LA portal's CalEnviroScreen and LAPD layers. | OKC Police data sits behind Accela/LexisNexis (no open API). OSBI publishes county-level only. EPA EJScreen ArcGIS service returned 400 errors during testing (may be restructured). CEJST was removed Jan 2025 by executive order. Documented honestly and deferred until a clean source surfaces. |
Snapshots are current as of 2024–2026 and will drift as sources update. This portal is decision-support, not an appraisal or investment advice — verify current figures with the primary source before acting. This is a first cut of the OKC sibling: the affordability model and six ZIP layers are live on real data; the OKC-specific local layers are staged and labeled above.