Fraser Valley · MLS® benchmark
Market command center
A live read on the Chilliwack housing market — price forecast, the demand-supply balance, the local economy, and the zoning that governs what gets built. Pick a module to go deeper.
Benchmark
Forecast · 24mo
Valuation gap
Inventory
Housing since '05
vs cost of living
The loonie
Foreign-buyer tax
The long view · two decades on one chart
Growth of $100 in Chilliwack housing, indexed to 2005
A dollar of housing in Chilliwack, the Lower Mainland and Canada, set against stocks and the cost of living — banded by the prime minister, the Bank of Canada governor and the US president, with the rate cycle, the loonie and GDP stacked beneath. Pick a year range to zoom — more events appear the wider you go — and hover any marker for detail and a source.
Indexed growth · 2005 = 100
2016–2021 · the climb
Chilliwack entered the decade as the Fraser Valley's affordability valve — a composite benchmark near $430k in 2016. Record-low pandemic rates (a 5-year fixed under 1.4% in 2021) and buyers fleeing Metro Vancouver lit a fuse: the city ranked the second-fastest-growing metro in Canada at the 2021 census, and the benchmark vaulted past $760k. Greater Vancouver ran hottest into the mid-2010s; Chilliwack lagged, then closed the gap as priced-out buyers pushed east.
2022–2026 · the reset
The peak landed in 2022 near $880k, just as the Bank of Canada began its fastest tightening ever. Dearer money cooled demand; the benchmark settled to $736k by mid-2026 — −3.6% YoY — inventory at 6.1 months, a buyer's market. Population kept climbing (~2,100/yr) while permits slid from 930 to ~580, so the supply deficit never cleared. The 2022 rate shock did what no tax had managed.
The policy lever the chart keeps bending
Taxes on foreign & non-resident buyers
Through the 2010s a wave of offshore capital — by the BC government's own figures, much of it from mainland China — poured into Lower Mainland real estate, and governments answered with a stack of taxes and bans. Each shows up on the chart above; two reach Chilliwack directly. Hover a row for sources.
Foreign-buyer tax · 15%. An additional property-transfer tax on non-resident buyers in Metro Vancouver (Bill 28). Foreign purchases fell from ~17% of deals to under 3% within a year; Vancouver sales dropped nearly 40% that autumn. Bill 28 ↗CCPA analysis ↗
Raised to 20% — and extended to the Fraser Valley, Chilliwack and Abbotsford included. The same NDP budget launched the Speculation & Vacancy Tax (2% for foreign owners and satellite families, 0.5% for vacant Canadian-owned homes). CCPA ↗NerdWallet ↗
Vancouver Empty Homes Tax. A city-level annual levy on homes left vacant — Vancouver only, but the template others would copy. background ↗
Underused Housing Tax. A 1%/year federal tax on vacant or underused homes owned by non-residents. Dept. of Finance ↗
Foreign-buyer ban. Most non-Canadians barred from buying residential property — nationwide, no regional carve-out, since extended to January 2027. The federal anti-flipping rule (gains on homes held under a year taxed as income) also took effect. rule timeline ↗
Speculation tax rises to 3% for foreign owners and satellite families — the lever tightens again even as federal mortgage rules loosen. NerdWallet ↗
What the long view shows
Housing matched the stock market — with a fraction of the drama. Over two decades a dollar in Chilliwack housing grew roughly 3.1×, almost exactly the TSX's price return — but without the 2008 crash that cut equities by a fifth. The taxes bent the curve more than they broke it: the 2016 foreign-buyer tax visibly cooled Vancouver into 2017–19 and the 2018 extension stalled the whole region, yet low rates and in-migration overwhelmed them until the 2022 rate shock finally turned prices.
Against all of it, the cost of living rose only ~1.6× — housing didn't just beat inflation, it lapped it. And the loonie quietly slid from near parity in 2011 to about 70 cents today: for a US-dollar buyer, Canadian housing is markedly cheaper than the local price tag suggests — a standing tailwind under any future loosening of the foreign-buyer rules. The forecast engine weighs the live dials; the modules below take each in turn.
Sources & further reading
Housing series are indicative reconstructions on the MLS® HPI convention (Jan 2005 = 100); TSX is the price index; inflation is CPI; FX is the annual C$/US$ rate. Index values are approximate, for relative comparison. Policy dates are accurate to the public record.
Forecast engine
Benchmark price forecast
An error-correction model anchoring price momentum to what local incomes and interest rates can sustain. Coefficients are literature-based priors — re-estimate by OLS once you assemble the monthly history.
Projected benchmark · 24 mo
Annualized
Fundamental P*
Valuation gap
Carry / income
Scenario
Signature analytic
What moves price next month
Structural inputs & model coefficients
Demand, supply & the economy
Is the city building fast enough?
Chilliwack is one of Canada's fastest-growing metros. Whether that keeps pressing on prices comes down to two races — homes against households, and output against population.
People added / yr
Households / yr
Units permitted
Provincial target
Population · City of Chilliwack
New dwelling units permitted
Verdict · supply vs demand
The homes-versus-households race is close, and historically behind. The city adds roughly 2,100 residents a year — about 810 new households at ~2.6 people each — yet permitted just 580 dwellings in 2024 and 573 in 2023, under even the 930 of record-low-rate 2021. Supply has run at perhaps 70–90% of household formation, and for years it lagged.
The provincial order is built to close that gap. Chilliwack must add 4,594 units in five years (~920/yr); year one cleared it with 1,069 completions — 162% of target. The catch: that pace leans on projects financed when rates were low, and the "missing middle" of townhouses and duplexes has stalled. Net read — supply has chronically trailed demand, which keeps a floor under prices even in today's buyer's market. (Permits lead completions by a year or two, so the series won't line up exactly.)
Output
Will GDP keep growing?
BC real GDP growth · regional proxy
Outlook
Yes — but slowly, and barely per person. BC real GDP grew 2.4% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024 (weakest of any province), tracking ~1.3–1.7% through 2026 before firming toward 1.8% in 2027.
The per-capita catch. In 2024 output grew 1.2% while population grew ~3% — so GDP per person fell ~1.8%. Growth leaned on population and the public sector, not productivity. As migration slows, headline growth eases but output per person turns positive again.
For Chilliwack: younger, faster-growing and cheaper than Metro Vancouver, the local economy should keep expanding in absolute terms — led by population, health care, construction and retail — with farming and manufacturing as its export base. Chief risk is U.S. trade policy on goods.
Composition
Structure of the economy
Employment by sector · indicative
Economic base
A service-city payroll on a land-based engine. Health care, retail, construction, education and public administration employ the most people — a typical mid-size metro mix.
What makes it distinctive is agriculture. Farming generates an estimated $685M on 67% of the city's land — the most farmland of any Lower Mainland community — feeding a food-processing and manufacturing cluster (~8% of workers). Aviation at YCW and outdoor tourism round out a diversifying base.
Shares are indicative 2021-Census proportions; manufacturing (rust) is the firm ~8% anchor, agriculture (blue) punches above its employment weight.
Incomes & affordability
Can local pay keep up?
Median household income · indicative
Mortgage payment ÷ income · illustrative
Verdict · affordability
Incomes rose; affordability still went backwards, then partly healed. Local pay climbed steadily — an indicative median household income from roughly $72k in 2016 to ~$95k today — but it never came close to matching the price-and-rate surge. The payment on a benchmark home (20% down, 25-year amortization) swallowed about 26% of income in 2016, then vaulted past 50% across 2022–23 as rates and prices peaked together — deep into stress territory.
It has eased toward ~40% by 2026 as prices softened and rates came off their highs, yet remains well above the ~32% comfort line. That gap is exactly the affordability term the forecast model leans on: until pay, price and rates re-converge, demand stays capped — and federal mortgage-rule changes (next module) become the lever that moves purchasing power without moving price.
Mortgage policy
How loose is the credit tap?
Two different taps govern Canadian mortgage credit: the price of borrowing, set by the Bank of Canada and the bond market, and the rules of borrowing, set by Ottawa and OSFI. In 2026 they point opposite ways — rates sit neutral-to-restrictive while the rulebook is the loosest in over a decade.
Overnight rate
Prime
Best 5-yr fixed
Stress-test floor
Policy stance · where the dials sit today
Read left as loose / stimulative, right as tight / restrictive. The split is the whole story: dear-ish money, easy rules.
The price of credit
The rate cycle, 2016–2026
Rates, mortgage-rule changes & the TSX
rates % (left) · TSX (right) · indicativeWhere rates are · mid-2026
The easing cycle is over. The Bank cut from 5.0% in June 2024 to 2.25% by October 2025 — one of its fastest descents — then held at 2.25% for a fifth straight meeting in June 2026, the floor of its own 2.25–3.25% neutral range. A surprise jump in May inflation to 3.2% on an oil shock, set against a Q1 technical recession, has boxed the Bank in: markets expect a hold through summer, with the next move a genuine coin-toss between a modest hike and a cut.
Fixed rates march to a different drum. The best insured 5-year fixed sits near 4.04%, pinned by a ~3% Government-of-Canada bond yield rather than the overnight rate — so it won't fall much until yields do. Variable money is cheaper (~3.3–3.5%) but carries the rate risk. And a renewal wall looms: about a third of mortgage holders face higher payments in 2026, with 5-year fixed renewals averaging near +20%.
Reading the chart: the grey TSX line shows equities roughly doubling over the decade — crossing 30,000 for the first time in September 2025 and near 35,000 today — even as the rate cycle whipsawed beneath it. The top ribbon marks the governors who set policy across that span: Stephen Poloz to mid-2020, Tiff Macklem since. Numbered ticks flag the mortgage-rule changes, tinted rust for tighter and teal for looser.
The rules of credit
From peak-restrictive to boldest reforms in decades
Qualification rules tightened for fifteen years after the 2008 excess, then reversed hard in 2024. Tags mark each change as loosening or tightening access.
Access peaks: 40-year amortizations and zero-down insured mortgages are permitted.
Ottawa walks it back in stages — insured amortization cut 40→35→30→25 years, minimum 5% down restored.
OSFI's B-20 stress test extends to uninsured borrowers — all must qualify at contract rate +2%.
Stress-test floor fixed at the greater of 5.25% or contract +2% (still in force in 2026).
Foreign-buyer ban takes effect, barring most non-residents — since extended to January 2027.
Tax-Free First Home Savings Account launches; Home Buyers' Plan limit raised to $60k.
30-year insured amortizations open to first-time buyers of new builds.
OSFI drops the stress test for straight lender switches at renewal — more shopping power for renewers.
"Boldest reforms in decades": insured-mortgage cap lifted $1M→$1.5M (first change since 2012), and 30-year amortizations extended to all first-time buyers and all new-build buyers.
Insured refinancing allowed up to $2M to build a secondary suite; FTB GST rebate on new builds follows in May.
OSFI weighs a lender-side loan-to-income cap (loans > 4.5× income) that could eventually replace the borrower stress test — review running through 2026.
Outlook & read-through
Forecast · the next dial-turns
Rates: a hold near 2.25% is the base case through summer 2026. The easing is spent; with inflation near 3% and a soft economy pulling opposite ways, the Bank's own signal is that the next move — up or down — waits on the oil shock and trade picture to resolve. Fixed rates stay anchored near 4% while bond yields hover at 3%.
Rules: the bias stays toward loosening — longer amortizations, the higher insured cap, easier switching, and a possible shift from the stress test to a loan-to-income cap. The foreign-buyer ban (to 2027) is the one standing restraint.
Read-through to the forecast model
The 2024 reforms work through the affordability term. A higher insured cap plus 30-year amortizations lift a first-time buyer's purchasing power an estimated 5–7% without price moving — a direct tailwind for the entry-level new-build condos and townhouses Chilliwack builders are delivering.
Rate cuts since 2024 relax the model's rate and fundamental-price terms, nudging fair value up; the renewal wall and a 4%-anchored fixed rate pull the other way. Net: mortgage policy has flipped from headwind to mild tailwind — consistent with the soft, range-bound benchmark the rest of the portal describes.
Land & development
Where growth is allowed
Supply is policy before it is concrete. Chilliwack's geography hands the market a hard constraint, and the OCP's answer to it shapes every project that gets built. These visuals unpack the plan's growth structure — where new housing is allowed to go, and why almost none of the city is even on the table.
The OCP in one picture
Why growth goes where it goes
Roughly 70% of Chilliwack is Agricultural Land Reserve — farmland the city cannot rezone. With the Fraser floodplain to the north and steep uplands to the south, the ALR forms a de facto wall. So Chilliwack 2050 does the only thing it can: steer almost all new housing inward and upward, densifying the urban corridor of Downtown, Chilliwack Proper and Sardis–Vedder, with a thin slice of selective growth on serviced hillsides and the rural settlements held at their existing edges.
Schematic after the Chilliwack 2050 OCP growth structure — relationships, not survey lines or scale. Shares approximate. For legal boundaries, see the city map linked at the foot of this section.
Where the next 25 years of growth goes
The plan judges hillside and rural areas able to absorb only ~15% of growth; the rest must come from corridor densification and infill — exactly why the missing-middle and mid-rise forms matter so much here.
The city's land budget · indicative
~70% of the city is ALR farmland — the single biggest reason supply is structurally tight. Only a thin, already-serviced corridor is genuinely buildable, which is why even a buyer's market keeps a floor under land values.
Current zoning
Zoning Bylaw 2020, No. 5000
- SSMUH · Bill 44. Since June 2024, 3–4 units allowed outright on single-detached and duplex lots inside the Urban Growth Boundary — over 280 m² permits up to 4. Affects ~11,000 properties.
- Secondary suites citywide. A suite is permitted in any single-detached dwelling regardless of zone; coach and garden suites via Development Permit Area 8.
- Zone families. R1 single-detached, RM multi-unit, C commercial and mixed-use, I industrial, A agricultural (ALR).
- Parcel-exact zoning lives in the city GIS — use the city map link at the foot of this section to check any lot.
Development plan
Chilliwack 2050 · OCP Bylaw 5500
- Adopted Dec 16, 2025. A 25-year growth vision setting land-use designations and development permit areas.
- Urban Growth Boundary. A containment line steering new housing to where services already exist.
- Transit-oriented area. Downtown around the Spadina exchange — added height and density, reduced parking within 400 m.
- Density benefits areas. Downtown, Sardis and Vedder cores — bonus density for 3-bedroom units or cash-in-lieu.
- Housing target order. The Province requires 4,594 net new units by 2029; year one reached 162% of target.
From the OCP · Chilliwack 2050
What you can build, where
The plan's Future Land Use designations set the ceiling on every site — density in units per hectare (UPH) or floor-area ratio (FAR), and height in storeys. This is the developer's first read on any parcel and the investor's read on where value can compound.
The density ladder · maximum height by designation
Height is hyper-concentrated: only the Mixed Use Core reaches 18 storeys, while almost everything else caps at 3–6. That cliff is the whole supply story — real density lives on a handful of core corridors. Full detail below.
| Designation | Density | Height | What it permits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core & urban — where density concentrates | |||
| Mixed Use CoreMXC | 250 UPH | 18 storeys | Commercial, offices, hotels and apartments above grade — the tallest, densest form, on core corridors. |
| Mixed UseMXU | 250 UPH | 6 storeys | Mid-rise commercial / residential mixed-use in walkable centres. |
| Low Rise ResidentialLRR | 250 UPH | 6 storeys | Apartments and stacked townhouse in and near cores. |
| Mixed ResidentialMXR | 50 UPH | 3 storeys | Houses, ADUs, duplex and multiplex up to 4 units/lot; townhouses on lots > 1,200 m². |
| Suburban & rural — transition and hillside | |||
| Suburban ResidentialSUR | 15 UPH | 3 storeys | Single-detached + ADU on the UGB fringe — Eastern Hillsides, Promontory, Little Mountain. |
| Country ResidentialCNR | 5 UPH | 3 storeys | Large rural acreages outside the ALR — Yarrow, Rosedale, Greendale. |
| Rural ResidentialRUR | 1 UPH | 3 storeys | Very low density on constrained rural hillsides. |
| Rural ReserveRRR | 0.25 UPH | 3 storeys | Lowest density — steep slopes and geologically sensitive land. |
| Employment — commercial & industrial | |||
| CommercialCOM | 1.2 FAR | 3 storeys* | Retail, offices, malls and big-box; hotels exempt from the height cap. |
| Mixed EmploymentMXE | — | 3 storeys | Light industrial with compatible commercial, tech and business parks. |
| IndustrialIND | — | 3 storeys | Manufacturing, warehousing and distribution on large lots. |
| Intense IndustrialIID | n/a | — | Heavy industry and resource extraction in remote locations. |
| Civic & institutional | |||
| CivicCIV | 2.0 FAR | — | Government, utilities, public works and parking. |
| InstitutionalINS | 1.0 FAR | 4 storeys | Schools incl. post-secondary, hospitals, care and religious uses. |
| Protected & specialized — limited or no housing | |||
| AgriculturalAGR | ALC-set | — | ALR farmland — uses governed by the Agricultural Land Commission, not the city. |
| Specialized DistrictSZD | n/a | — | Airport & aerospace, gravel extraction, agri-business park, rail spur operations. |
| Park & RecreationPAR | n/a | — | Active and passive parkland and supporting amenities. |
| Forest & ConservationFAC | n/a | — | Natural areas, riparian corridors, conservation and remnant lands. |
UPH = dwelling units per hectare · FAR = floor-area ratio · caps are the designation maxima; the Zoning Bylaw and any density-benefit zoning set the parcel-specific figure. *hotels exempt. Source: Chilliwack 2050 OCP, Land Use Designations.
20-yr capacity to 2044
28,143
additional dwelling units the plan must zone for (2024 Interim Housing Needs Report)
5-yr Provincial target
4,594
net units by 2029 — year one hit 162%
Growth tiers
3
Urban Growth Boundary → Development Area → Density Benefits Area
Boundary expansion
None
UGB & Development Area fixed for the life of the plan — a hard supply cap
Developer cost stack
What growth pays for
- Development Cost Charges (DCCs). One-time, at building permit or subdivision — fund off-site transport, water, drainage, sewer, fire protection and parkland.
- Amenity Cost Charges (ACCs). A new tool funding community amenities — recreation and community centres, libraries, childcare, cultural and non-profit space.
- Park dedication. Any subdivision creating 3+ lots gives 5% of the area as park or cash-in-lieu (LGA s.510).
- Density benefits. In Density Benefits Areas, bonus density is traded for 3-bedroom units or amenities; some land is pre-zoned to enable it.
Approvals & constraints
Development Permit Areas
- DPA 1 · Drinking water. Source-protection controls on land near the aquifer.
- DPA 2 · Hillside / geological. Slope-stability review on the designated hillsides — the constraint that holds hillside growth to ~15% of the total.
- DPA 3 · Watercourses. Riparian protection city-wide near streams.
- DPA 5 · Form & character. Design control over multi-unit, commercial and industrial projects city-wide — the design-review burden.
- Floodplain & geological hazard areas stack overlay risk on top of the base designation — a major reason the buildable envelope is so thin.
Industrial & employment lands
A protected, scarce base
- Effectively full. Industrial land is squeezed between the ALR and the built-up UGB — little vacant supply remains.
- No conversion. The plan won't support industrial-to-non-industrial change; temporary non-industrial permits are capped at 3 years (policies 7.10–7.12).
- Consolidation. Business-park infill is encouraged; small-lot subdivision discouraged — a scarcity thesis for industrial holders.
Strategic nodes
Where investment is steered
- Canada Education Park. UFV expansion, CBSA and the RCMP training centre — an education-and-research hub on the former base lands.
- Chilliwack Airport & aerospace. A Specialized District protecting airspace and aviation/aerospace industry.
- Centres of excellence. Agri-business, wood-product manufacturing, green tech and high-tech, backed by incentives and streamlined permitting (policy 7.5).
Go to the source
The schematic and charts above interpret the OCP's structure. For parcel-exact zoning, designations and overlays, the city's official GIS holds the legal lines.
Competition · active supply
Who's building in Chilliwack now
Every project below is competing supply — the units that land on the market over the next two to three years and feed the inventory side of the model. The pattern is clear: townhouses and low-rise woodframe, not towers, with a clear pivot toward purpose-built rental downtown.
New-home communities
~45
planned, under construction or just completed
Most active developer
Diverse
downtown core & Canada Education Park
Tallest form being built
~6 storeys
woodframe — no concrete towers yet, despite 18-storey zoning
Largest single community
1,200+
homes — Cedarbrook, Chilliwack Mountain (Westbow)
Where they're building
The competitive map
Markers are placed by neighbourhood and street address — approximate, not parcel lines. Click any marker for the developer, form, status and a link to its site. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.
The builders & their projects
| Developer | What they build | Active projects · where |
|---|---|---|
| Downtown core — mid-rise condo & rental | ||
| Algra Bros | Mixed-use district | built · phasingDistrict 1881 — the 4-acre downtown core of lofts, offices, restaurants & breweries that catalysed the rest. |
| Diverse Properties | 6-storey midrise condos | under constructionGarrison Central — 60 homes, downtown core. The city's most active developer. |
| Molibu Construction | 4-storey, 60 condos | completeThe Robson — 9450 Robson St, sold out and built. |
| The Mann Group | Retail + rental | proposedOld Safeway site, 9299 Mainstreet — retail with rental above. |
| Three Rivers Properties | Purpose-built rental | under constructionThe Ottison — 1- & 2-bed rental near downtown. |
| Hillsides — master-planned townhouse & single-family | ||
| Westbow Construction | Master-planned TH + houses | under constructionCedarbrook (1,200+ homes, Chilliwack Mtn) · Elk Creek (123 houses, final phase selling). Chilliwack-based since 1977. |
| Van Maren Group | Master-planned townhouses | under constructionBase 10 / Liqwel — Promontory; nearing completion. |
| Kingcraft Construction | 3-storey townhouses | under constructionOsprey Ridge — 34 homes, Chilliwack Mtn. Chilliwack-based. |
| Woodbridge Homes | 3-storey townhouses | sellingReflections / Water's Edge at Cedar Sky — 31 homes, Chilliwack Mtn. |
| Ambstep Homes | Ranchers + townhouses | sellingElysian Village (156 ranchers) · a 144-home townhouse site on Chilliwack Mtn. Chilliwack-based since 1988. |
| Canada Education Park & Garrison | ||
| Diverse Properties | Townhouses + condos | sellingAcadia (42 TH) · York / Aria (45511 Campus Dr) · The Yearling (86 condos, Iron Horse). |
| Elim Village | Seniors independent-living | under constructionThe Cedar Project — Garrison Crossing. |
| Sardis, Vedder & Chilliwack Proper — low-rise | ||
| Noort Homes | Low-rise condos | under constructionMountainview Lane — 113 homes, 8497 Young Rd. Family-owned since 1963. |
| Alture Properties | Resort-style condos | sellingLakeside — 21 homes, Cultus Lake. |
Snapshot, mid-2026 — developer names link to official project or company sites; status tags reflect the latest public stage. A few projects (Andmar in Sardis, Sakoon Living on Wellington) are tracked without a publicly named developer and sit in the narrative below. Verify current status before acting.
Supply coming to market
The delivery timeline
Homes from tracked projects by estimated completion window — the competitive wave that lands on the market and feeds months-of-inventory in the model. Split by form, so you can see the rental pivot arrive.
Illustrative. Unit counts are from public project pages; completion windows are estimated from current build status and shift with approvals and absorption. Excludes the master-planned hillside communities — Cedarbrook (1,200+) and Elysian Village (156) — which deliver in phases through the early 2030s and would otherwise dwarf the discrete projects.
What they're building
Townhouses & woodframe, not towers
- Two dominant forms. 3-storey townhouses and 4–6 storey woodframe apartments make up almost the entire pipeline.
- No towers yet. The OCP zones Mixed Use Core to 18 storeys, but nothing concrete and tall is actually being built — the market tops out around 6 storeys.
- Hillside single-family persists. Large master-planned communities still deliver detached and rancher homes at the move-up end.
Where the cranes are
Four clusters
- Downtown core. District 1881 catalysed a wave of mid-rise condo and rental along Wellington, Spadina and Mainstreet.
- Chilliwack Mountain & Promontory. The big master-planned townhouse and single-family communities.
- Canada Education Park / Garrison. Campus-adjacent townhouses, condos and seniors housing.
- Sardis & Vedder cores. Low-rise infill, now inside the Density Benefits Area.
The rental pivot
Purpose-built rental is rising
- Secured rental downtown. A 6-storey, 41-unit secured-rental building on Spadina Ave; a 71-unit rental on Hazel St under construction.
- Bigger proposals. A 155-unit rental at Wellington & Mary and an approved 82-unit, 6-storey mixed-use at Gore Ave.
- Non-market too. The 85-unit Camelot Apartments was secured under BC's Rental Protection Fund — supply that leaves the for-sale market.
Read-through to the model
What the pipeline implies
- Inventory stays elevated. A deep townhouse and low-rise queue keeps months-of-inventory above the long-run average — soft on the benchmark near-term.
- Rental eases rents, not prices. The rental wave relieves the rental market more than the ownership ladder the model prices.
- Calibrates the supply term. This is the real-world counterpart to the construction-starts input in the forecast engine.
Sources: Build Chilliwack project tracker, Livabl, Vancouver New Condos, Chilliwack Progress, City of Chilliwack. A competitive snapshot, not investment advice — confirm project status and developer details directly.
Methodology & data
The formula & where the data lives
The structure and signs are sound; magnitudes are yours to calibrate by OLS once a monthly panel is assembled. The ±1σ band is illustrative, not an estimated interval.
Δln P = α
+ β₁·Δln P₋₁ momentum (+)
+ β₂·Δrate rate shock (−)
+ β₃·pop demand (+)
+ β₄·income power (+)
− β₅·starts gap supply (−)
+ β₆·(SNLR−50) tightness (+)
− β₇·afford. gap stretch (−)
− λ·(ln P₋₁ − ln P*) reversion
// fundamental — same mortgage math
P* = L* / (1 − down%) , where
L* solves payment(L*) = target · income
Bank of Canada — Valet live · no key
Rates & yields. /valet/observations/{series}/json · 5-yr GoC BD.CDN.5YR.DQ.YLD · discover via /valet/lists/series/json.
Statistics Canada — WDS live · no key
Population, starts 34-10-0135, permits 34-10-0066, CPI 18-10-0004, income 11-10-0190 via getDataFromVectorsAndLatestNPeriods.
CMHC live · no key
Housing starts, completions & under-construction by CMA — through the StatCan tables above or the HMIP portal.
CADREB / CREA manual · monthly
The dependent variable: benchmark, SNLR & months-of-inventory. No open API — entered monthly from creastats.crea.ca/board/chil.
City of Chilliwack live · maps
Parcel zoning (Bylaw 5000), OCP 2050 land use & GIS — maps.chilliwack.com · chilliwack.com/opendata.
DataBC — BC Geographic Warehouse live · no key
Constraint overlays via WMS on the Land map: ParcelMap BC PMBC_PARCEL_FABRIC_POLY_SVW, mapped floodplains CWB_FLOODPLAINS_BC_AREA_SVW, ALR OATS_ALR_POLYS — served from openmaps.gov.bc.ca/geo/pub/{layer}/ows.
Coefficients are literature-based priors, not estimated from Chilliwack history. Fundamental value is highly sensitive to the income and affordability-target inputs. The economy charts use firm sourced figures except the sector-share chart, which is badged indicative. Not investment advice.